Santi Aldama Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 12/11/2023

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Rebounds

Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 11, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 1:14 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has compiled a whopping 1.7 offensive boards per game this season, quite a bit higher than his 1.1 offensive boards per game last season.
In contrast to last year's 20.9 clip, Santi Aldama's playing time has increased this year to 26.5 minutes per game.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 4th-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Santi Aldama figures to see an increase in effectiveness for all stats due to owning the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has tallied 0.1 technical fouls per game this season, significantly more than his 0.0 technicals per game last season.
The slowest pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Memphis Grizzlies.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team has brought down 12.2 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Dallas Mavericks (saving possessions that can bring about bonus chances for offense).

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