Santi Aldama Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 11/22/2023

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Rebounds

Houston Rockets vs Memphis Grizzlies · Nov 22, 2023

Updated Nov 23, 2023 1:04 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has totaled 3.8 defensive boards per game away from home since the start of last season, ranking in the 77th percentile -- among the best in the league by this standard.
Santi Aldama has been called for a mere 0.8 personal fouls per game this year, a significant dropoff from his 2.3 fouls per game last year.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 8th-quickest pace in the league while playing away from home this year.
The Memphis Grizzlies rank as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they are on their home court, the other team has collected 10.3 offensive boards per game (9th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Rockets (losing possessions that could otherwise spark further chances for offense).

Favors Under

The Rockets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league with the home court advantage this year, which should decrease possessions for the Grizzlies.
Santi Aldama will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road usually decreases player production in all facets of the game.

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