Santi Aldama Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 3/15/2023

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Rebounds

Miami Heat vs Memphis Grizzlies · Mar 15, 2023

Updated Mar 15, 2023 11:42 PM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has put up 2.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 more than he's put up in all games this season.
Santi Aldama has committed 1.1 personal fouls per game this year, placing him among the least-whistled players in the NBA (22nd percentile).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have given up the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has averaged 11.5 minutes per game away from his home court this year, ranking him in the 21st percentile -- putting him among the least-utilized plays in the NBA.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Grizzlies.
Santi Aldama will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage generally decreases player performance in all facets of the game.

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