Santi Aldama Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 3/1/2023

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Rebounds

Houston Rockets vs Memphis Grizzlies · Mar 1, 2023

Updated Mar 2, 2023 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has averaged 2.0 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's averaged over the course of the season.
Santi Aldama has been called for 1.1 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the least foul-prone players in the NBA (22nd percentile).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the quickest pace in the league over the last 20 games.
The Rockets have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league on their home court this year, which ought to increase opportunities for the Grizzlies.
The Memphis Grizzlies rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has played 11.5 minutes per game when playing on the road this year, ranking in the 21st percentile -- some of the lowest playing time of any player in the league.
The Rockets have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (12.2) in the NBA to the other team over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).
Santi Aldama will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing without the home court advantage tends to worsens player production in all facets of the game.

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