Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 11/15/2024

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Memphis Grizzlies · Nov 15, 2024

Updated Nov 16, 2024 3:18 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has been called for 1.3 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the lowest-fouling players in the league (17th percentile).
The matchup against the Warriors is a good one for 3-point shots; the opposing team's starting SFs have shot for the highest three rate in the NBA this year (47.0%).
The most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Grizzlies.
The Golden State Warriors have played at the 7th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to boost plays for the Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies check in as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Compared to last year's 36.5% clip, Santi Aldama's 3-point ability has dropped this year to 21.7%.
The Grizzlies rank as the 4th-least aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games while playing away from home in regard to shot attempts from downtown.
Santi Aldama stands to suffer a drop-off in output across the board as a result of playing on the visting team in this game.

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