Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 11/6/2024

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Los Angeles Lakers · Nov 6, 2024

Updated Nov 6, 2024 5:44 PM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has tallied 29.5 minutes per game at home this year, ranking in the 76th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the league.
This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have tallied 5.8 3-point attempts per game (highest in the NBA) against the Los Angeles Lakers, creating a positive matchup.
The 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year has been the Grizzlies.
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 9th-fastest pace in the NBA this year, which should lead to more plays for the Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has sunk 9.0% of his attempts from downtown over the last 5 games, 11.2% lower than he's made in all games this year.
The Memphis Grizzlies rank as the 6th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league while playing at home this year.
The matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers may be a difficult one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a measly 1.9 free throws per game over the last 15 games (least in the NBA).

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