Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 4/3/2024

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Memphis Grizzlies · Apr 3, 2024

Updated Apr 4, 2024 12:02 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last year's 6.7 rate, Santi Aldama's shots taken have spiked this year to 9.3 per game.
Santi Aldama has averaged 32.3 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 5.7 higher than he's averaged over the course of the year.
The matchup against the Bucks is a good one for threes; the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged the 7th-most treys per game in the NBA this year (1.8).
The 4th-quickest tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies will likely get a boost in plays in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-fastest tempo team in the league over the last 5 games (the Bucks).

Favors Under

In regard to scoring, the Memphis Grizzlies's poor 106.0 points per game settles in as the weakest in the league this year.
Santi Aldama has converted a lowly 61.8% of his foul shots this year, a significant dropoff from his 70.0 mark last year.
The matchup against the Bucks may be a hard one for getting to the foul line; the other team's starting PFs have attempted a mere 2.6 free throws per game over the last 25 games (least in the NBA).
Santi Aldama is expected to suffer a reduction in performance in all stat categories in light of playing on the visting team in this matchup.

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