Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 3/18/2024

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Memphis Grizzlies · Mar 18, 2024

Updated Mar 19, 2024 2:01 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-125/-109).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -133 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has attempted 11.2 shots per game over the last 5 games while on the road, 2.4 higher than he's attempted in all games this year on the road.
Santi Aldama has averaged 32.6 minutes per game over the last 5 games, 6.6 higher than he's averaged in all games this season.
This year, the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged 52.6% on field goal attempts (6th-best in the league) against the Sacramento Kings, resulting in a strong matchup.
The Sacramento Kings have played at the 8th-quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should boost opportunities for the Grizzlies.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and spark additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Memphis Grizzlies grade out 3rd-best in in the NBA when playing on the road with 12.7 offensive rebounds per game over the last 10 games.

Favors Under

In regard to offense, the Memphis Grizzlies's unimpressive 105.8 points per game settles in as the lowest in the NBA this year.
The Grizzlies have played at the 7th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games away from their home court.
In contrast to last season's 70.0% rate, Santi Aldama's free-throw prowess has regressed this season to 59.8%.
The matchup against the Sacramento Kings may be a difficult one for drawing fouls; opposing starting PFs have attempted just 2.4 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (least in the NBA).
Santi Aldama will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium usually decreases player performance in all stat categories.

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