Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 3/16/2024

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Mar 16, 2024

Updated Mar 17, 2024 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has attempted 4.9 threes per game this year, ranking in the 79th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Santi Aldama has played 30.3 minutes per game over the last 15 games, 4.5 more than he's played overall this season.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 5th-most aggressive offense in the NBA this year as it relates to shot attempts from downtown.
The Grizzlies are expected to see an increase in plays in this contest from facing the 5th-most up-tempo tempo visiting team in the league over the last 5 games (the Thunder).
This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing starting PFs have attempted 4.9 foul shots per game (7th-highest in the league) against the Thunder, making it fairly effortless to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

The matchup against Oklahoma is a difficult one; when the Oklahoma City Thunder are the visiting squad, they have given up the 3rd-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting PFs over the last 5 games (11.0).
The 7th-least up-tempo pace home offense in the league over the last 15 games has been the Grizzlies.
Offensive rebounds save possession and result in additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Memphis Grizzlies grade out 7thworst in in the league while playing at home with just 9.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.
Out of all players in the league, Santi Aldama comes in at the 12th percentile for free-throw performance with a feeble 60.7% rate this year.

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