Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 1/29/2024

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Sacramento Kings · Jan 29, 2024

Updated Jan 30, 2024 12:53 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has sunk 53.3% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games at home, 5.4% more than he's put through the net over the course of the season while playing at home.
As it relates to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the most aggressive team in the NBA when playing at home over the last 5 games has been the Memphis Grizzlies.
The matchup against the Kings is a favorable one for threes; opposing starting SFs have averaged the 28th-most threes per game in the NBA this year (2.3).
The Kings have played at the 9th-speediest pace in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to lead to increased opportunities for the Grizzlies.
The Kings have given up the least offensive boards per game (9.3) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 4th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 5 games.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and result in more opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Memphis Grizzlies grade out 8thworst in in the NBA with just 10.2 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Among all players in the league, Santi Aldama measures in the 13th percentile for foul-shot efficiency with a a weak 60.4% rate this year.

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