Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 1/26/2024

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Orlando Magic · Jan 26, 2024

Updated Jan 27, 2024 1:13 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has converted 54.3% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games at home, 7.7% more than he's put through the net overall this season while at home.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new chances for scoring and assists).
The Orlando Magic have allowed the 3rd-least offensive boards per game (9.7) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Santi Aldama ought to see a spike in effectiveness for all stats on account of having the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The matchup against Orlando is a tough one; when the Magic are away from home, they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PFs over the last 10 games (15.1).
The 7th-most sluggish tempo home offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Magic have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 15 games, which ought to lead to decreased plays for the Memphis Grizzlies.
Santi Aldama has made 60.4% of his foul shot attempts this year, placing him in the 13th percentile among all players in the NBA.

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