Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 12/26/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies · Dec 26, 2023

Updated Dec 27, 2023 1:12 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In contrast to last season's 3.4 mark, Santi Aldama's shot attempts from beyond the arc have spiked this season to 5.0 per game.
This year when they are the visiting squad, opposing clubs have averaged 33.5% on 3-pointers (4th-weakest in the NBA) against the New Orleans Pelicans, making this a difficult matchup.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 6th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games as the road team.
The Pelicans have played at the 7th-speediest tempo in the league over the last 15 games with the home court advantage, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Memphis Grizzlies.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Grizzlies rank 10thbest in in the league with 11.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has tallied 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, placing him among the most foul-prone players in the league when it comes to getting T'ed up (85th percentile).
When it comes to scoring, the Memphis Grizzlies's subpar 107.0 points per game places fewest in the league this year.
Over the last 15 games when they are the visiting squad, opposing teams have come down with 12.1 offensive boards per game (3rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Pelicans (preserving possessions that can spark extra opportunities for offense).
Compared to last year's 70.0% mark, Santi Aldama's foul-shot prowess has declined this year to 59.9%.
This matchup may be a positive one for getting to the charity stripe; when the New Orleans Pelicans are playing at home, the other team has attempted a whopping 23.4 free throws per game over the last 15 games (6th-most in the NBA).