Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 12/19/2023

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies · Dec 19, 2023

Updated Dec 20, 2023 12:39 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 2nd-most aggressive offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when it comes to three-point attempts.
This year when they are away from home, opposing teams have averaged 33.8% on 3-pointers (3rd-weakest in the NBA) vs. the New Orleans Pelicans, designating this as a tough matchup.
The 7th-quickest tempo visiting team in the NBA this year has been the Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies are expected to get a boost in possessions in this contest from squaring off against the 7th-fastest tempo team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the New Orleans Pelicans).

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has missed 3.2 attempts from downtown per game when playing on the road this year, putting him among the worst players in the league by this metric: 78th percentile for misses on the road.
Out of all players in the league, Santi Aldama registers in the 89th percentile for technical fouls, registering a colossal 0.1 fouls per game this year.
The Grizzlies have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 13 games when they are the visiting team, opposing squads have brought down 11.9 offensive boards per game (3rd-most in the NBA) against the New Orleans Pelicans (maintaining possessions that can result in more opportunities for offense).
Relative to last season's 70.0% rate, Santi Aldama's foul-shot efficiency has diminished this season to 60.8%.

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