Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 12/11/2023

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 11, 2023

Updated Dec 12, 2023 12:58 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 13.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last season's 45.9% clip, Santi Aldama's 3-point prowess has risen this season to 41.8%.
In contrast to last year's 20.9 clip, Santi Aldama's playing time has increased this year to 26.5 minutes per game.
This year, the opposition's starting PFs have tallied 22.6 points per game (30th-highest in the NBA) against the Dallas Mavericks, labeling this as a positive matchup for offensive efficiency.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 4th-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which should lead to increased plays for the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies rank as the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has tallied 0.1 technical fouls per game this season, significantly more than his 0.0 technicals per game last season.
The Memphis Grizzlies rank as the 2nd-lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The slowest pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Memphis Grizzlies.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the other team has brought down 12.2 offensive rebounds per game (3rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Dallas Mavericks (saving possessions that can bring about bonus chances for offense).
Santi Aldama has converted a lowly 43.3% of his foul shots this year, significantly less than his 80.1 mark last year.

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