Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 11/18/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

San Antonio Spurs vs Memphis Grizzlies · Nov 18, 2023

Updated Nov 19, 2023 3:58 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the league, Santi Aldama slots into the 80th percentile for 3-point performance away from his home court with a a stellar 37.2% rate since the start of last season.
The 6th-fastest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Grizzlies.
The Grizzlies are expected to see a spike in plays in this game from competing against the 3rd-fastest pace-of-play home team in the NBA this year (the San Antonio Spurs).
The Grizzlies check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games as the home team (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).
This year when they are on the road, opposing teams have come down with 9.3 offensive boards per game (4th-fewest in the NBA) against the San Antonio Spurs (reducing possessions that could otherwise generate added chances for offense).

Favors Under

Among all players in the NBA, Santi Aldama ranks in the 22nd percentile for field goal performance away from home with a a poor 39.7% rate since the start of last season.
In terms of shooting, the Memphis Grizzlies's feeble 108.5 points per game playing at home rates 5th-lowest in the NBA this year.
This year when they are on the road, their opposition has totaled 124.5 points per game (most in the league) against the San Antonio Spurs, identifying this as a good matchup for offensive efficiency.
This matchup may be a favorable one for getting to the charity stripe; when the Spurs are at home, opposing squads have attempted a massive 25.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games (5th-most in the league).
Santi Aldama ought to suffer a drop-off in efficiency for all stats in light of playing on the visting team in this game.