Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 11/12/2023

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

LA Clippers vs Memphis Grizzlies · Nov 12, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:42 PM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has converted 37.3% of his three-point shots since the start of last season, placing him in the 81st percentile out of all players in the league.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the 3rd-most aggressive offense in the NBA when playing at home this year in regard to three-point attempts.
The matchup vs. the Clippers is a difficult one for three-point attempts; opposing squads have totaled the 6th-fewest three attempts per game in the league since the start of last season (32.4).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 5th-quickest pace in the NBA as the road team this year.
The LA Clippers have played at the 6th-fastest pace-of-play in the league without the home court advantage this year, which should lead to more possessions for the Grizzlies.

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has converted 39.0% of his shots from the field on the road since the start of last season, putting him in the 19th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
As it relates to shooting, the Grizzlies's subpar 109.0 points per game as the road team settles in as the 5th-weakest in the NBA this year.
The LA Clippers have allowed the 3rd-most offensive rebounds per game (12.6) in the NBA to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 5 games, their opposition has attempted 25.2 free throws per game (8th-most in the NBA) vs. the Clippers, making it fairly effortless to get to the charity stripe.
Santi Aldama will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road tends to reduce player performance for all stats.