Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 4/4/2023

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Portland Trail Blazers · Apr 4, 2023

Updated Apr 5, 2023 12:18 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has sunk 66.7% of his shots from behind the three-point arc over the last 5 games at home, 19.6% more than he's converted from 3-point range overall this season on his home court.
This matchup is a tough one for field goal attempts; when the Trail Blazers are the visiting team, opposing squads have tallied the 6th-least FG attempts per game in the NBA against them this year (85.6).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games playing at home.
The Trail Blazers have played at the 6th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while traveling, which should lead to more plays for the Grizzlies.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Trail Blazers have allowed the 10th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.0) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Memphis Grizzlies have been quite unsuccesful at getting to the foul line recently: 4th-worst in the league over the last 20 games, totaling a measly 20.2 foul shot attempts per game.
This matchup may be a good one for getting to the free throw line; when the Trail Blazers are the visiting squad, the other team have attempted a colossal 27.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games (4th-most in the NBA).

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