Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 3/28/2023

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Orlando Magic · Mar 28, 2023

Updated Mar 29, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has converted 61.3% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games at home, 6.6% higher than he's sunk overall this season at home.
This matchup is a difficult one for 3-pointers; when the Magic are away from home, opposing squads have compiled the 3rd-lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (34.3%).
The Magic have played at the 5th-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should increase plays for the Grizzlies.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 3rd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
Santi Aldama has converted 94.0% of his foul shots over the last 15 games at home, 14.1% more than he's sunk overall this season on his home court.

Favors Under

The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the 9th-most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing at home.
The Magic have allowed the 9th-most offensive rebounds per game (10.8) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a positive one for getting to the free throw line; opposing clubs have attempted a massive 26.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (3rd-most in the NBA).

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