Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 3/13/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies · Mar 13, 2023

Updated Mar 13, 2023 11:01 PM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+104/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has committed 1.1 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the lowest-fouling players in the league (22nd percentile).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Mavericks have allowed the 7th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
The matchup vs. the Mavericks may be a tough one for drawing fouls; opposing clubs have attempted just 19.6 free throws per game over the last 10 games (4th-least in the league).

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has converted 9.7% of his three-point attempts this year, ranking in the 4th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Santi Aldama has played 11.5 minutes per game while playing on the road this year, ranking in the 21st percentile -- riding the bench far more than most players in the NBA.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the 8th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA while playing on the road this year when it comes to shots from downtown.
This matchup is a favorable one for scoring; opposing squads have shot for the 3rd-highest field goal rate in the NBA over the last 5 games (51.8%).
The Mavericks have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Grizzlies.