Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 3/11/2023

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 11, 2023

Updated Mar 12, 2023 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-130/+106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ +106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has sunk 51.6% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games at home, 10.3% more than he's put through the hoop overall this year at home.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the speediest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
When playing away from home, the Mavericks have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
Santi Aldama has attempted 2.4 free throws per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season.

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has converted 17.3% of his shots from downtown with the home court advantage this year, placing him in the 9th percentile among all players in the league.
Santi Aldama has tallied 10.9 minutes per game this year, ranking among the least-used players in the NBA: 18th percentile.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 8th-least aggressive offense in the league this year when it comes to attempts from beyond the arc.
This matchup is a favorable one for threes; when the Mavericks are the visiting squad, opposing clubs have put up the 6th-highest 3-point rate in the NBA against them this year (36.5%).
The Mavericks have played at the most lethargic pace in the league this year, which ought to decrease plays for the Grizzlies.

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