Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 3/9/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Golden State Warriors · Mar 9, 2023

Updated Mar 10, 2023 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has successfully made 51.6% of his field goals over the last 5 games at home, 10.3% more than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year while playing at home.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games.
The Memphis Grizzlies rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create additional chances for scoring and assists).
While playing away from home, the Warriors have given up the 5th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.5) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Santi Aldama has attempted 2.4 foul shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's attempted in all games this year.

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has converted 17.3% of his three-pointers when playing at home this year, putting him in the 9th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
Santi Aldama has averaged 10.9 minutes per game this year, some of the lowest playing time of any player in the NBA: 18th percentile.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the 9th-least aggressive offense in the league this year as it relates to attempts from downtown.
This matchup is a strong one for attempts from beyond the arc; opposing teams have totaled the 3rd-most three attempts per game in the league over the last 15 games (39.3).
The Warriors have played at the 5th-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games on the road, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Grizzlies.