Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 3/3/2023

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies · Mar 3, 2023

Updated Mar 4, 2023 3:21 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-108/-112).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -112.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has tallied 1.1 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the least foul-prone players in the NBA (22nd percentile).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 20 games.
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games at home, which ought to lead to increased plays for the Grizzlies.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Playing at home, the Nuggets have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (7.2) in the league to their opposition over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has converted 9.7% of his three-pointers this year, ranking him in the 4th percentile among all players in the league.
Santi Aldama has tallied 11.5 minutes per game when playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 21st percentile -- putting him among the least-utilized plays in the NBA.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the 8th-lowest scoring offense in the league away from their home court this year in terms of three-pointers.
This matchup is a favorable one; when the Nuggets are on their home court, they have allowed the most points per game in the league to their opposition over the last 15 games (121.8).
Santi Aldama has successfully made 61.9% of his foul shot attempts this year, putting him in the 15th percentile out of all players in the NBA.