Santi Aldama Points - Player Prop Bet 2/25/2023

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Points

Memphis Grizzlies vs Denver Nuggets · Feb 25, 2023

Updated Feb 26, 2023 12:51 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Points Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-125/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has made 51.6% of his field goals over the last 5 games at home, 10.3% higher than he's converted overall this year at home.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the most up-tempo pace in the league over the last 20 games.
The Nuggets have played at the 6th-quickest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to increase possessions for the Grizzlies.
The Memphis Grizzlies rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore lead to added opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Nuggets have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (8.1) in the league to opposing squads over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has sunk 17.3% of his 3-pointers with the home court advantage this year, ranking him in the 9th percentile out of all players in the league.
Santi Aldama has been on the court for 10.9 minutes per game this year, seeing the court far less than most players in the league: 18th percentile.
The Memphis Grizzlies rank as the 9th-least aggressive offense in the NBA this year when it comes to 3-point attempts.
The matchup vs. the Nuggets is a positive one; they have given up the 3rd-most points per game in the league to their opposition over the last 10 games (121.5).
This matchup may be a good one for drawing fouls; the other team have attempted a whopping 28.1 free throws per game over the last 10 games (3rd-most in the NBA).

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