Santi Aldama Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 3/11/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Made 3 Point Shots

Memphis Grizzlies vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 11, 2023

Updated Mar 12, 2023 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has accumulated 1.1 personal fouls per game this year, making him one of the least least-whistled players in the league (22nd percentile).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the speediest pace in the NBA over the last 20 games.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to new opportunities for scoring and assists).
When playing away from home, the Mavericks have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate additional chances for scoring and assists).
Santi Aldama will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on your home court usually increases player production in all stat categories.

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has converted 17.3% of his shots from downtown with the home court advantage this year, placing him in the 9th percentile among all players in the league.
Santi Aldama has tallied 10.9 minutes per game this year, ranking among the least-used players in the NBA: 18th percentile.
The Memphis Grizzlies have been the 8th-least aggressive offense in the league this year when it comes to attempts from beyond the arc.
This matchup is a favorable one for threes; when the Mavericks are the visiting squad, opposing clubs have put up the 6th-highest 3-point rate in the NBA against them this year (36.5%).
The Mavericks have played at the most lethargic pace in the league this year, which ought to decrease plays for the Grizzlies.