Santi Aldama Assists - Player Prop Bet 3/13/2023

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Santi Aldama

NBA · Player Props

Santi Aldama

F-C · Memphis Grizzlies

Assists

Dallas Mavericks vs Memphis Grizzlies · Mar 13, 2023

Updated Mar 13, 2023 10:27 PM EST

Analysis

Santi Aldama Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -190 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Santi Aldama has committed 1.1 personal fouls per game this year, ranking him as one of the lowest-fouling players in the league (22nd percentile).
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games.
The Memphis Grizzlies check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Mavericks have allowed the 7th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.6) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Santi Aldama has put up 0.4 assists per game without the home court advantage this year, ranking him in the 13th percentile -- one of the worst in the league by this metric.
Santi Aldama has played 11.5 minutes per game while playing on the road this year, ranking in the 21st percentile -- riding the bench far more than most players in the NBA.
The Mavericks have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Grizzlies.
Santi Aldama will not have the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home city usually lowers stat production in all stat categories.

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