Saddiq Bey Points - Player Prop Bet 11/11/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Saddiq Bey

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat · Nov 11, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 12:42 AM UTC

Analysis

Saddiq Bey Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-102/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Hawks have played at the 2nd-speediest pace in the NBA while playing away from home this year.
The Miami Heat have played at the 9th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games on their home court, which should increase plays for the Hawks.
The Hawks check in as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league when playing at home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
The Miami Heat have allowed the 4th-least offensive boards per game (9.8) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
This matchup is a difficult one for getting to the foul line; their opposition has attempted a lowly 19.6 free throws per game when the Heat have the home court advantage this year (2nd-least in the league).

Favors Under

Saddiq Bey has attempted a mere 8.5 shots from the field per game this year, significantly lower than his 10.6 mark last year.
In comparison to last season's 5.3 mark, Saddiq Bey's shot attempts from beyond the arc have declined this season to 4.0 per game.
Out of all players in the league, Saddiq Bey registers in the 81st percentile for technical fouls, compiling a massive 0.0 fouls per game when playing at home this year.
When it comes to shot attempts from beyond the arc, the 4th-least aggressive team in the league since the start of last season has been the Hawks.
This matchup is a strong one for threes; when the Heat are playing at home, opposing clubs have posted the 8th-highest three rate in the NBA against them this year (36.8%).