Robert Williams III Points - Player Prop Bet 5/23/2023

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Robert Williams III

NBA · Player Props

Robert Williams III

C-F · Boston Celtics

Points

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics · May 23, 2023

Updated May 24, 2023 12:06 AM EST

Analysis

Robert Williams III Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Robert Williams III has converted 78.2% of his field goal attempts without the home court advantage this year, putting him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
The Boston Celtics have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).
This matchup is a hard one for drawing fouls; opposing squads have attempted a mere 20.1 free throws per game when the Heat are at home this year (least in the league).

Favors Under

This matchup is a positive one for three-pointers; when the Heat are at home, opposing clubs have tallied the 2nd-most threes per game in the league against them this year (13.3).
The Boston Celtics have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.
The Heat have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should reduce plays for the Celtics.
Robert Williams III has made a measly 54.3% of his foul shots this season, significantly lower than his 76.6 rate last season.
As a team, the Boston Celtics have been bad at drawing fouls while on the road: worst in the NBA this year with a mere 20.0 free throw attempts per game.

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