Robert Williams III Points - Player Prop Bet 5/19/2023

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Robert Williams III

NBA · Player Props

Robert Williams III

C-F · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat · May 19, 2023

Updated May 20, 2023 2:36 AM EST

Analysis

Robert Williams III Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Robert Williams III has sunk 85.7% of his field goals over the last 10 games, 6.8% higher than he's put through the hoop in all games this season.
The Boston Celtics rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
Robert Williams III will hold the home court advantage in this contest. Playing with the home court advantage generally increases stat production in all stat categories.

Favors Under

The matchup against the Heat is a hard one; they have allowed the 15th-least points per game in the league to the opposition's starting Cs this year (11.9).
The Boston Celtics have played at the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.
The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games, which should decrease opportunities for the Celtics.
The Boston Celtics check in as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
Robert Williams III has made a mere 55.7% of his foul shots this year, quite a bit lower than his 76.6 rate last year.

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