RJ Barrett Points - Player Prop Bet 2/21/2025

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RJ Barrett

NBA · Player Props

RJ Barrett

F-G · Toronto Raptors

Points

Toronto Raptors vs Miami Heat · Feb 21, 2025

Updated Feb 22, 2025 2:34 AM EST

Analysis

RJ Barrett Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

RJ Barrett has converted 47.8% of his 3-point attempts over the last 10 games, 10.5% higher than he's converted from 3-point range in all games this year.
RJ Barrett has been on the court for 33.1 minutes per game this year, ranking among the most used players in the NBA: 89th percentile.
This year when they are on their home court, the opposing team's starting SFs have tallied 5.8 3-point attempts per game (3rd-highest in the league) against the Miami Heat, creating a positive matchup.
Offensive rebounds save possession and spark bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Raptors grade out 9th-best in in the NBA with 11.6 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Over the last 5 games, opposing starting SFs have attempted 6.0 free throws per game (3rd-most in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, succeeding in their efforts to get to the foul line.

Favors Under

RJ Barrett has been called for 2.4 personal fouls per game on his home court this year, placing him in the 85th percentile -- among the league's highest-fouling.
The Raptors have been the 4th-lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 5 games.
The 7th-most lethargic pace home team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Toronto Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors will likely see a decline in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 2nd-slowest tempo team in the league over the last 10 games (the Heat).
RJ Barrett has converted a lowly 59.9% of his foul shots this year, significantly less than his 70.7 mark last year.

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