RJ Barrett Points - Player Prop Bet 4/12/2024

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NBA · Player Props

RJ Barrett

F-G · Toronto Raptors

Points

Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors · Apr 12, 2024

Updated Apr 13, 2024 2:07 AM EST

Analysis

RJ Barrett Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-127/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -127 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

RJ Barrett has successfully made 9.6 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 2.2 more than he's put through the hoop in all games this year.
RJ Barrett has successfully made 53.3% of his attempts from beyond the arc over the last 5 games on the road, 16.7% more than he's made from 3-point range overall this year when playing on the road.
This year when they are the visiting team, opposing starting PFs have averaged 46.4% on threes (highest in the league) against the Miami Heat, identifying this as a strong matchup.
The 3rd-quickest tempo offense in the NBA over the last 25 games has been the Raptors.
The Raptors have been the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

RJ Barrett has tallied 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 15 games without the home court advantage, 1.1 higher than he's tallied over the course of the year on the road.
When it comes to shots from behind the three-point arc, the 3rd-least aggressive team in the league over the last 10 games has been the Raptors.
The Raptors will likely suffer a reduction in opportunities today from facing the slowest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Heat).
Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) against the Miami Heat, making it tough to get to the free-throw line.
RJ Barrett will not receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court tends to decrease player production in all stat categories.