RJ Barrett Points - Player Prop Bet 2/4/2024

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NBA · Player Props

RJ Barrett

F-G · Toronto Raptors

Points

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Toronto Raptors · Feb 4, 2024

Updated Feb 5, 2024 12:13 AM EST

Analysis

RJ Barrett Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-106/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 23.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

RJ Barrett has sunk 9.0 shots made from the field per game over the last 10 games, 2.1 higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the year.
RJ Barrett has attempted 4.6 treys per game this year, ranking him in the 76th percentile out of all players in the league.
The 4th-quickest tempo away offense in the league over the last 25 games has been the Raptors.
The Toronto Raptors will likely get a boost in plays today from facing the 7th-quickest pace home offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (the Thunder).
The Raptors check in as the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

RJ Barrett has been called for 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games on the road, 1.3 more than he's been called for overall this year on the road.
In terms of threes, the Toronto Raptors's lackluster 11.8 sunk threes per game comes in as the 7th-fewest in the NBA this year.
The matchup vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder is a hard one for 3-point shots; the other team's starting SFs have put up the 14th-lowest three rate in the league this year (25.5%).
While on their home court, the Thunder have given up the most offensive rebounds per game (12.7) in the league to their opposition over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
RJ Barrett will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road usually decreases player production in all facets of the game.