RJ Barrett Points - Player Prop Bet 5/12/2023

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RJ Barrett

NBA · Player Props

RJ Barrett

F-G · New York Knicks

Points

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks · May 12, 2023

Updated May 12, 2023 11:36 PM EST

Analysis

RJ Barrett Points Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 20.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

RJ Barrett has converted 2.8 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 higher than he's converted from 3-point range overall this year.
RJ Barrett has tallied 32.6 minutes per game when playing away from home this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the NBA.
The matchup vs. the Heat is a positive one; they have given up the 30th-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SFs this year (17.7).
The New York Knicks check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA when playing away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to additional chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the NBA to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

RJ Barrett has tallied 0.2 technical fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.2 higher than he's tallied overall this year.
The New York Knicks rank as the lowest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.
The New York Knicks have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 25 games while on the road.
The Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year, which should lead to fewer plays for the Knicks.
RJ Barrett will not have the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium tends to reduces player performance for all stats.

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