RJ Barrett Points - Player Prop Bet 5/8/2023

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RJ Barrett

NBA · Player Props

RJ Barrett

F-G · New York Knicks

Points

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks · May 8, 2023

Updated May 8, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

RJ Barrett Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

RJ Barrett has attempted 16.0 field goals per game this year, placing him in the 90th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
RJ Barrett has attempted 5.3 threes per game away from his home court this year, putting him in the 85th percentile out of all players in the league.
RJ Barrett has played 32.5 minutes per game when playing on the road this year, putting him in the 88th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The matchup against Miami is a good one for 3-pointers; when the Heat are at home, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled the 30th-most three-point shots per game in the league this year (2.4).
The New York Knicks rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league without the home court advantage this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The New York Knicks have been the lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games when playing away from home.
The New York Knicks have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league over the last 10 games.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the NBA this year, which ought to decrease possessions for the Knicks.
RJ Barrett will not hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court usually decreases stat production across the board.

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