RJ Barrett Points - Player Prop Bet 5/6/2023

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RJ Barrett

NBA · Player Props

RJ Barrett

F-G · New York Knicks

Points

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks · May 6, 2023

Updated May 5, 2023 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

RJ Barrett Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

RJ Barrett has scored 23.2 points per game over the last 5 games, 3.6 more than he's scored overall this season.
RJ Barrett has made 53.5% of his shot attempts from the field over the last 5 games, 10.5% more than he's converted in all games this year.
RJ Barrett has been on the court for 32.7 minutes per game while playing away from home this year, putting him in the 89th percentile -- some of the highest playing time of any player in the league.
The matchup vs. Miami is a good one for 3-pointers; when the Heat are on their home court, the opposing team's starting SFs have tallied the 30th-most three-pointers per game in the NBA this year (2.4).
The New York Knicks check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while playing away from home this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The New York Knicks have been the 5th-lowest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The New York Knicks have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games while on the road.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest pace in the league this year, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Knicks.
RJ Barrett will not enjoy the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium tends to worsens stat production in all facets of the game.

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