RJ Barrett Points - Player Prop Bet 3/22/2023

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RJ Barrett

NBA · Player Props

RJ Barrett

F-G · New York Knicks

Points

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks · Mar 22, 2023

Updated Mar 23, 2023 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

RJ Barrett Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

RJ Barrett has attempted 19.4 field goals per game over the last 5 games away from home, 3.6 higher than he's attempted over the course of the season on the road.
RJ Barrett has attempted 5.3 3-point shots per game on the road this year, ranking him in the 84th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
RJ Barrett has been on the court for 32.8 minutes per game away from his home court this year, putting him in the 89th percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA.
The matchup against Miami is a favorable one for threes; when the Heat are on their home court, the other team's starting SFs have tallied the 30th-most treys per game in the NBA this year (2.3).
The New York Knicks have been the best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The New York Knicks check in as the 7th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA this year.
The New York Knicks have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 20 games away from their home court.
The Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games in their home stadium, which ought to reduce plays for the Knicks.
RJ Barrett will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home court tends to worsens player production across the board.

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