Quentin Grimes Points - Player Prop Bet 3/3/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Quentin Grimes

G · New York Knicks

Points

Miami Heat vs New York Knicks · Mar 3, 2023

Updated Mar 4, 2023 12:31 AM EST

Analysis

Quentin Grimes Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -123 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Quentin Grimes has made 2.2 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.7 more than he's made from three in all games this season without the home court advantage.
Quentin Grimes has been on the court for 21.7 minutes per game over the last 15 games away from his home court, 5.8 higher than he's been on the court for over the course of the season on the road.
The matchup against the Heat is a good one; they have given up the 29th-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting SGs this year (17.5).
The New York Knicks check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while playing away from home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create added chances for scoring and assists).
The Heat have given up the 3rd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.3) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Quentin Grimes has accumulated 2.4 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 higher than he's accumulated over the course of the year.
The New York Knicks check in as the 5th-lowest scoring offense in the league this year.
The New York Knicks have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league away from home this year.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Knicks.
Quentin Grimes has converted 50.0% of his foul shots while playing away from home this year, putting him in the 7th percentile out of all players in the NBA.