P.J. Tucker Points - Player Prop Bet 2/27/2023

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NBA · Player Props

P.J. Tucker

F · Philadelphia 76ers

Points

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat · Feb 27, 2023

Updated Feb 27, 2023 11:06 PM EST

Analysis

P.J. Tucker Points Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Philadelphia 76ers rank as the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games playing at home.
The matchup against Miami is a good one; when the Heat are the visiting team, they have allowed the 26th-most points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PFs this year (15.8).
When playing on the road, the Heat have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.5) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
P.J. Tucker has made 87.5% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 14.6% higher than he's converted overall this season.
P.J. Tucker will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing with the home court advantage tends to improves player production in all stat categories.

Favors Under

P.J. Tucker has converted 18.3% of his 3-point shots while playing at home this year, placing him in the 11th percentile out of all players in the league.
P.J. Tucker has committed 2.4 personal fouls per game this year, putting him among the highest-fouling players in the league (78th percentile).
The Philadelphia 76ers have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league this year, which ought to reduce plays for the 76ers.
The Philadelphia 76ers check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).