Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 4/4/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Washington Wizards · Apr 4, 2026

Updated Apr 4, 2026 7:08 PM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup against the Wizards is a strong one; they have given up the 7th-most points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting SFs this year (15.7).
The Miami Heat have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the NBA this year.
The Washington Wizards have played at the 2nd-fastest tempo in the league over the last 15 games away from their home city, which should lead to more plays for the Heat.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Miami Heat rank 4th-best in in the NBA while on their home court with 12.3 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.
The matchup vs. Washington may be a good one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a whopping 4.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Wizards are away from home (7th-most in the league).

Favors Under

When it comes to threes, the Heat's feeble 34.3% rate of drained threes when playing at home settles in as the 4th-weakest in the NBA over the last 10 games.

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