Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 4/1/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics · Apr 1, 2026

Updated Apr 2, 2026 1:23 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-115/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -134 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This year when they are on their home court, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled 6.7 three attempts per game (most in the NBA) against the Boston Celtics, identifying this as a good matchup.
The most up-tempo tempo team in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat.
The Miami Heat have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Miami Heat check in as the least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 15 games when playing at home.
The Celtics have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA this year, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Heat.
The matchup against Boston may be a tough one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted just 1.5 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Celtics are away from home (5th-least in the NBA).

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