Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/30/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Philadelphia 76ers · Mar 30, 2026

Updated Mar 30, 2026 11:03 PM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-111/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Miami Heat have played at the most up-tempo tempo in the NBA this year.
The Miami Heat will likely get a boost in plays in this contest from squaring off against the 4th-speediest pace offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the 76ers).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and lead to further chances for scoring and assists, and the Miami Heat rank 7th-best in in the NBA on their home court with 12.6 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.

Favors Under

When it comes to three-pointers, the Heat's feeble 31.7% rate of converted threes on their home court measures as the worst in the league over the last 5 games.
The matchup vs. the Philadelphia 76ers is a difficult one; they have allowed the least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SFs this year (11.3).
This year, opposing starting SFs have attempted 1.5 free throws per game (fewest in the NBA) against the 76ers, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.

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