Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/25/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Miami Heat · Mar 25, 2026

Updated Mar 25, 2026 11:07 PM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-104/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 9.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The most up-tempo pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Heat.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and spark bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Heat grade out 2nd-best in in the NBA away from their home court with 14.5 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.
This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 3.8 free throws per game (4th-most in the league) against the Cleveland Cavaliers, making it fairly effortless to draw fouls.

Favors Under

The Heat rank as the least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The matchup against the Cleveland Cavaliers is a difficult one for shot attempts from downtown; the opposition's starting SFs have totaled the 3rd-least 3-point attempts per game in the league this year (3.9).
The Heat will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this game from facing the 3rd-slowest tempo home offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Cleveland Cavaliers).

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