Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/21/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Houston Rockets vs Miami Heat · Mar 21, 2026

Updated Mar 21, 2026 11:48 PM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pelle Larsson has put up 15.6 points per game over the last 5 games, 4.8 higher than he's put up in all games this season.
The quickest tempo offense in the NBA this year has been the Heat.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and lead to more chances for scoring and assists, and the Heat rank 3rd-best in in the NBA with 13.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.
This year when they are away from home, the opposition's starting SFs have attempted 3.5 foul shots per game (6th-most in the NBA) against the Rockets, succeeding in their efforts to get to the charity stripe.

Favors Under

The Heat rank as the 3rd-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA over the last 5 games.
The matchup against Houston is a difficult one for threes; when the Rockets have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting SFs have put up the 2nd-lowest three rate in the NBA this year (26.1%).
The Heat are expected to suffer a reduction in plays in this game from being pitted against the 2nd-most lethargic tempo offense in the league this year (the Houston Rockets).

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