Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/19/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Los Angeles Lakers · Mar 19, 2026

Updated Mar 19, 2026 11:08 PM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-101/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -124 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup against the Lakers is a good one for 3-point attempts; the opposing team's starting PFs have tallied the most 3-point attempts per game in the NBA this year (5.6).
The most up-tempo pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Heat.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Miami Heat rank 3rd-best in in the league with 13.5 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.

Favors Under

The Heat rank as the 6th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 10 games at home.
The Lakers have played at the 3rd-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 10 games away from their home court, which ought to decrease plays for the Miami Heat.
Over the last 15 games, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 2.2 foul shots per game (fewest in the league) vs. the Los Angeles Lakers, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line.

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