Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 3/12/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks · Mar 12, 2026

Updated Mar 12, 2026 11:33 PM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-121/+114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 12.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup against Milwaukee is a good one for field goals; when the Bucks are the visiting team, the opposition's starting SFs have tallied the 3rd-most field goals per game in the NBA this year (7.0).
The speediest pace-of-play offense in the league this year has been the Miami Heat.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and produce more chances for scoring and assists, and the Heat rank 2nd-best in in the NBA with 14.2 offensive boards per game over the last 25 games.
The matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks may be a positive one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a colossal 5.6 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (4th-most in the league).

Favors Under

The Bucks have played at the 6th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games, which ought to lead to fewer opportunities for the Miami Heat.

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