Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 2/28/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets · Feb 28, 2026

Updated Mar 1, 2026 4:58 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-114/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -104 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pelle Larsson has notched 15.6 points per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 4.2 higher than he's notched over the course of the year at home.
This year when they are at home, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 2.4 3-pointers per game (3rd-most in the NBA) vs. the Houston Rockets, resulting in a favorable matchup.
The Heat have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the league this year.
The Heat rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Heat rank as the 4th-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Rockets have played at the most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 20 games without the home court advantage, which should lead to fewer plays for the Heat.
Over the last 10 games when they have the home court advantage, opposing starting SFs have attempted 2.0 foul shots per game (2nd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Houston Rockets, making it tough to get to the free-throw line.

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