Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 2/24/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat · Feb 24, 2026

Updated Feb 25, 2026 1:01 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+105/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup against the Bucks is a strong one; they have given up the 3rd-most points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SFs over the last 5 games (19.8).
The Heat have played at the quickest pace-of-play in the NBA this year.
Offensive rebounds continue possession and lead to further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Miami Heat rank 2nd-best in in the league with 14.1 offensive boards per game over the last 15 games.
The matchup against Milwaukee may be a strong one for drawing fouls; opposing starting SFs have attempted a colossal 5.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Milwaukee Bucks are playing at home (3rd-most in the league).

Favors Under

The Miami Heat check in as the 5th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 10 games.
The Bucks have played at the 5th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Miami Heat.

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