Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 2/20/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat · Feb 20, 2026

Updated Feb 21, 2026 3:33 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-105/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pelle Larsson has notched 15.0 points per game over the last 5 games, 4.8 higher than he's notched in all games this year.
This year when they are the visiting squad, the opposition's starting SGs have averaged 13.6 shot attempts per game (9th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Hawks, marking this as a favorable matchup.
The Miami Heat have played at the fastest pace-of-play in the league this year.
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the 2nd-quickest pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which ought to raise plays for the Miami Heat.
The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Heat check in as the 3rd-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 15 games.

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