Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 2/6/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat · Feb 6, 2026

Updated Feb 7, 2026 4:28 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-118/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -107 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pelle Larsson has notched 16.6 points per game over the last 5 games, 6.1 higher than he's notched over the course of the season.
This year, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 5.8 three attempts per game (2nd-highest in the NBA) against the Celtics, resulting in a strong matchup.
The Miami Heat have played at the fastest tempo in the league this year.
The Miami Heat check in as the 2nd-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Miami Heat have been the 4th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the league over the last 10 games.
The Celtics have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to fewer possessions for the Miami Heat.
Over the last 10 games when they are the visiting team, opposing starting SFs have attempted 2.6 free throws per game (4th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Celtics, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line.

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