Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/25/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Phoenix Suns vs Miami Heat · Jan 25, 2026

Updated Jan 26, 2026 12:13 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (+100/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Pelle Larsson has notched 13.4 points per game over the last 5 games while playing on the road, 4.2 higher than he's notched in all games this year on the road.
This year when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled 1.9 three-pointers per game (10th-highest in the NBA) against the Phoenix Suns, identifying this as a strong matchup.
The Heat have played at the quickest pace in the league this year.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and bring about more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Heat grade out best in in the league with 18.6 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

The Miami Heat rank as the 2nd-least efficient shooting team in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Suns have played at the 6th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 10 games on their home court, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Miami Heat.
The matchup against the Phoenix Suns may be a challenging one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a lowly 1.6 free throws per game over the last 10 games (4th-least in the NBA).

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