Pelle Larsson Points - Player Prop Bet 1/24/2026

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Pelle Larsson

NBA · Player Props

Pelle Larsson

G · Miami Heat

Points

Utah Jazz vs Miami Heat · Jan 24, 2026

Updated Jan 25, 2026 2:28 AM EST

Analysis

Pelle Larsson Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This year, the opposition's starting SFs have averaged 2.4 threes per game (most in the league) vs. the Jazz, making this a favorable matchup.
The most up-tempo pace-of-play offense in the NBA this year has been the Miami Heat.
The Jazz have played at the 2nd-speediest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to more plays for the Heat.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Heat rank best in in the NBA with 15.8 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

With respect to 3-point shots, the Miami Heat's poor 33.9% rate of sunk threes while on the road rates 5th-lowest in the league over the last 15 games.
This year, the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted 1.8 foul shots per game (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Jazz, making it tough to get to the free-throw line.

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